João Valle e Azevedo is an Associate Professor (Adjunct) at Nova School of Business and Economics, Head of the Monetary Policy Division at the Economics and Research Department of Banco de Portugal and a Member of the Eurosystem’s Monetary Policy Committee.

João joined Banco de Portugal as a Research Economist in 2007 and started collaborating with Nova in 2008. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics (Stanford University) a M.Sc. in Statistics (London School of Economics) and a Bachelor in Mathematics Applied to Economics and Business (Technical University of Lisbon - ISEG).

His main research interests are in Time Series Econometrics, with a focus on Forecasting, and Macroeconomics (Monetary Economics and Fiscal Policy). His work has been published at the Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, International Journal of Forecasting, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Macroeconomic Dynamics and The Economic Journal.

His main policy interests are in Central Banking and in the Deepening of the Economic and Monetary Union.

Ph.D. in Economics - Stanford University

Master in Statistics - London School of Economics

Bachelor in Mathematics applied to Economics and Management - Universidade Técnica de Lisboa

Macroeconomics (Monetary Economics and Fiscal Policy) and Time Series Econometrics

• Carvalho, Alexandre, Valle e Azevedo, João, Ribeiro, Pedro (2024). Permanent and temporary monetary policy shocks and the dynamics of exchange rates. Journal Of International Economics, 147.
• Valle e Azevedo, João, Ritto, João, Teles, Pedro (2022). The neutrality of nominal rates: How long is the long run?. International Economic Review, 63 (4), 1745-1777.
• Ercolani, Valerio, Valle e Azevedo, João (2019). How can the government spending multiplier be small at the zero lower bound?. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 23 (8), 3457-3482.
• Valle e Azevedo, João, Pereira, Ana (2018). Macroeconomic forecasting using low-frequency filters. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 80 (1), 39-64.
• Valle e Azevedo, João, Jalles, João Tovar (2017). Model-based vs. professional forecasts: implications for models with nominal rigidities. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 21 (1), 130-159.
• Teles, Pedro, Uhlig, Harald, Valle e Azevedo, João (2016). Is quantity theory still alive?. The Economic Journal, 126 (591), 442-464.
• Ercolani, Valerio, Valle e Azevedo, João (2014). The effects of public spending externalities. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 46, 173-199.
• Rodrigues, Paulo, Rubia, Antonio, Valle e Azevedo, João (2013). Finite sample performance of frequency and time domain tests for seasonal fractional integration. Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, 83 (7), 1373-1384.
• Valle e Azevedo, João, Pereira, Ana (2013). Approximating and forecasting macroeconomic signals in real-time. International Journal of Forecasting, 29 (3 - July 2013), 479-492.
• Valle e Azevedo, João (2011). A multivariate band-pass filter for economic time series. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C: Applied Statistics, 60 (1), 1-30.
• Koopman, Siem Jan, Valle e Azevedo, João (2008). Measuring synchronization and convergence of business cycles for the euro area, UK and US. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 70 (1), 23-51.
• Valle E Azevedo, João, Koopman, Siem Jan, Rua, António (2006). Tracking the business cycle of the euro area: A multivariate model-based bandpass filter. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 24 (3), 278-290.