Take a look at our publications

EFFECTS OF INDIVIDUAL INCENTIVE REFORMS IN THE PUBLIC SECTOR: THE CASE OF TEACHERS

Authors: Pedro S. Martins, João R. Ferreira

Journal: Public Choice (January 2025) - open access

Abstract: Can incentive schemes deliver value in the public sector, despite major principal-agent challenges? We evaluate a reform that introduced individual teacher performance-related pay and tournaments in public schools in Portugal, despite trade union opposition. We find evidence that the focus on individual performance decreased student achievement (as measured by national exams) and increased grade inflation. The results follow from a difference-in-differences analysis of matched student-school panels and two complementary control groups (including private schools). Students with a higher proportion of teachers exposed to tournaments also perform worse. Overall, our results highlight the social costs of disrupting workers’ cooperation, a possible unintended consequence of public-sector tournaments.

Read it here: Martins, Pedro S., Ferreira, João R. (2025) Effects of individual incentive reforms in the public sector: the case of teachers. Public Choice

UNDERSTANDING THE PRIVATE-PUBLIC SCHOOL PERFORMANCE GAP IN PISA: EVIDENCE FROM PORTUGAL

Authors: Ricardo Colaço, Pedro Freitas, Luís Catela Nunes, Ana Balcão Reis

Journal: Large-scale Assessments in Education, Volume 13, article number 1. (January 2025)  - open access

Abstract: We analyse the PISA-reported convergence in the performance of private and public schools in Portugal. When PISA sampling weights are used, the number of students enrolled in those types of schools and specific grades/tracks of study differs significantly from official population figures. To account for those differences, we apply a post-stratification adjustment; however, sample sizes are small, resulting in estimates with low precision for several subgroups. We propose recommendations for improving the handling of these issues in future PISA cycles. In an additional analysis, we also account for changes in the composition of the student population. When all factors are considered, the convergence in scores is far less impressive than reported. For instance, in Science, after adjusting the sampling weights and removing population composition effects, the reported convergence of 46 points between private and public schools from 2015 to 2018 amounts to only 9 points. The decomposition and sample adjustment methods used in this paper can be easily adapted to other contexts.

Read it here: Colaço, Ricardo, Freitas, Pedro, Nunes, Luís Catela, Reis, Ana Balcão (2025) Understanding the private-public school performance gap in PISA: evidence from Portugal. Large-scale assessments in Education

WHAT MATTERS FOR THE DECISION TO STUDY ABROAD? A LAB-IN-THE-FIELD EXPERIMENT IN CAPE VERDE

Authors: Cátia Batista, David M. Costa, Pedro Freitas, Gonçalo Lima, Ana B. Reis

Journal: Economic Modelling Volume 140 (November 2024)

Abstract: Study abroad migration is the fastest growing international migration flow. However, the college completion rates of students from low-income countries are often modest in OECD countries, raising the hypothesis that these migrants are poorly informed about the costs and benefits of their decision. Our work tests this hypothesis by running a lab-in-the-field experiment where graduating high school students in Cape Verde are faced with incentivized decisions to apply for college studies abroad. Our results show that potential migrants react strongly to information about the availability of financial support and about college completion rates. Since subjects' prior beliefs on availability of financial support are overestimated, it is likely that study migrants need to shift their time from study to work after uninformed migration, which likely harms their scholar performance. Policies that inform potential migrants of actual study funding possibilities should decrease study migration flows but may improve successful graduation.

Read it here: Batista, Cátia, Costa, David M., Freitas, Pedro, Lima, Gonçalo, Reis, Ana B. (2024) What Matters for the Decision to Study Abroad? A Lab-in-the-Field Experiment in Cape Verde. Journal of Development Economics 

DOES VOCATIONAL EDUCATION PAY OFF IN CHINA? EVIDENCE FROM CITY-LEVEL EDUCATION SUPPLY SHOCKS 

Authors: Li Dai, Pedro S. Martins

Journal: Economic Modelling Volume 140 (November 2024)

Abstract: China hosts the world's largest secondary education sector: more than 14 million adolescents enrol in secondary academic and vocational schools every year. Despite the large literature on returns to education, little evidence exists as to how these two streams compare in the country. Using 2013 China Household Income Project data, we estimate the returns to secondary vocational education both at the mean and along the conditional wage distribution. We use instrumental variables based on the considerable variation in education provision across cities and years (and a 1995 policy reform). We find that vocational education generates a large wage premium (up to 54%), especially for those of lower earning potential. Our findings indicate that vocational education can be a good option for those who do not wish to enter a tertiary education, especially the less well-off.

Read it here: Dai, Li, Martins, Pedro S. (2024). Does vocational education pay off in China? Evidence from city-level education supply shocks Economic Modelling, Volume 140.

FROM A TO Z: EFFECTS OF A 2ND-GRADE READING INTERVENTION PROGRAM FOR STRUGGLING READERS

Authors: João Lopes, Pedro Martins, Célia Oliveira, João Ferreira, João Tiago Oliveira, Nuno Crato

Journal: Revista de Psicodidática, English ed. Volume 29, Issue 1, January-June 2024, Pages 57-68 

Abstract: Many children in primary grades show difficulties with reading fluency, hardly reading text or doing it effortfully and fruitlessly, making intervention programs for struggling readers a priority for researchers and schools. This paper analyzes the results of a reading intervention program for 182 second-grade struggling readers (boys = aged 7-8 46.7%) from public schools. Students received a multi-component program, including repeated readings, word recognition, morphological analysis, text interpretation, and writing skills. Participants received about fifty 45-minute intervention sessions over the school year. Using a difference-in-differences, quasi-experimental between- (intervention and control group) and within-group longitudinal design (three-point measurements), we found that the intervention group progressed significantly faster than a classmate control group (n = 827, boys = aged 7-8, 52.4%) in all reading outcomes (speed, accuracy, and expressiveness). By the end of the school year, differences between the intervention and control groups in accuracy and expressiveness become small but are still large in reading speed. Implications for research and practice are presented at the end of the paper.

Read it here: Lopes, João; Matrins, Pedro S.; Oliveira, Célia; Ferreira, João; Oliveira; João Tiago; Crato, Nuno (2023) From A to Z: Effects of a 2nd-grade reading intervention program for struggling readers. Revista de Psicodidática (English ed.). Volume 29, Issue 1, January-June 2024, Pages 57-68.

STUDENTS WITH AN IMMIGRANT BACKGROUND IN THE LISBON METROPOLITAN AREA

Authors: Sílvia de Almeida, João Firmino, José Mesquita Gabriel, Maria João Hortas, Luís Catela Nunes

Journal: Cidades, Comunidades e Territórios nº 46 (Junho 2023)

Abstract: This paper focuses on the territorial distribution of students with an immigrant background enrolled in the 3^rd cycle of basic education in Portugal and on the differences in the academic performance of students enrolled in the last year of this cycle based on their birthplace and immigrant background when compared to their native peers in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area. These differences are examined by estimating several linear regression models using as dependent variable three performance indicators – student’s results in the 9^th grade national exams in the Maths and Portuguese Language subjects, as well as a binary indicator of a successful academic record during the 3^rd cycle. The observed results confirm the hypothesis that there are significant differences in the students’ academic performance depending on their immigrant background and birthplace: (i) 2^nd-generation and 1^st-generation students perform worse than Native students; (ii) students from Brazil and PALOP countries have the most significant differences compared to students from Portugal. We also identify that a substantial part of these differences is already present in the end of the 2^nd cycle of basic education. Furthermore, our results indicate that a considerable part of the differences is explained by factors inherent to the school and the class of the student, and not so much to the municipality, which might indicate the existence of some type of segregation experienced by these students, either at intra-municipality level (by the different schools) or intra-school level (by the different classes).

Read here: Almeida, S., Firmino J., Mesquita, J. Hortas, M. J., Nunes, L. C. (2023). Students with an immigrant background in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area. Evidence at the municipal, school and class levels. Cidades, Comunidades e Territórios, 17.

THE TERMINATION OF PUBLICLY FUNDED PRIVATE SCHOOL CONTRACTS: SUPPLY AND DEMAND SIDE EFFECTS

Authors: João Firmino, André Guilherme, Afonso Leme, Luís Catela Nunes

Journal: Journal of School Choice, volume 17, 2023 - Issue 1: School Choice in Europe 

Abstract: We evaluate the demand and supply side effects of a policy which cuts funding to a significant portion of publicly funded private classes in Portugal, Contratos de Associação (AC), in which students do not pay tuition fees and are under the same admission criteria as in Public Schools – i.e., these private schools cannot select students based on their socioeconomic status or prior achievement. This policy established that from 2016/17, Private school classes would no longer receive Contratos de Associação funding if the government deemed that there were enough nearby Public Schools with capacity to absorb the new student cohorts. Compared to the pre-reform student cohort, we find that affected students changed the demand patterns for different types of schools: both the number of Public school classes and regular Full-Fee Private School classes increased, but the rise in the former was larger in absolute terms. Nevertheless, this pattern of movements was heterogenous across different sub-groups of the student population. While non-low-income students switched both to Public and Private school classes, we verify practically a one-to-one movement of the low-income student cohort from AC schools to Public schools only. On the supply-side, we find that the decrease in AC schools was not fully compensated by the increase of schools that are now under different Private School systems and that some of these schools later shut down.

Read here: Firmino, J. Guilherme, A., Leme, A. C., Nunes L. C. (2023). The Termination of Publicly Funded Private School Contracts: Supply and Demand Side Effects. Journal of School Choice, 17(1), 82-102. 

GENDER GAPS IN DIFFERENT GRADING SYSTEMS

Authors: Catarina Angelo, Ana Balcão Reis

Journal: Education Economics Vol. 29, Issue 1 

Abstract: This paper analyzes the impact of grading practices on the gender gap in student achievement. We examine the gender difference in the difference between teacher grading and scores on national exams to test whether there are gender differences associated with different grading systems. We use data on 21 subjects across humanities and sciences for students taking exams between the 4th and 12th grades from 2007 to 2018 in Portugal. Our results indicate that a grading system based on exams favors boys, while one based on teacher assessment favors girls.

STUDENT SELECTION AND PERFORMANCE IN HIGHER EDUCATION: ADMISSION EXAMS VS. HIGH SCHOOL SCORES

Authors: Pedro Luís Silva, Luís Catela Nunes, Maria do Carmo Seabra, Ana Balcão Reis, Miguel Alves

Journal: Education Economics. Vol. 27, Issue 5 

Abstract: In many countries, students are selected into higher education institutions based on their achievement at high school, measured by scores given by their teachers and obtained on final national exams. This paper compares these two measures in terms of their ability to predict students' success in higher education. Accounting for sample selection problems, we find that the high-school score is a stronger predictor of students' performance at university. However, the score obtained in the mathematics national exam still adds information. We conclude that both measures are complementary, a result that is relevant for university recruitment and selection policies.

Read here: Silva, P. L., Nunes, L. C., Seabra, M. C., Reis, A. B., Alves, M. (2020). Student Selection and Performance in Higher Education: Admission Exams vs. High School Scores. Education Economics 28 (5) 

THE EFFECT OF A SPECIALIZED VERSUS A GENERAL UPPER-SECONDARY SCHOOL CURRICULUM ON STUDENTS' PERFORMANCE AND INEQUALITY. A DIFFERENCE-IN-DIFFERENCES CROSS-COUNTRY ANALYSIS

Authors: Afonso Câmara Leme, Josep-Oriol Escardíbul, Luís Catela Nunes, Ana Balcão Reis, and Maria do Carmo Seabra

Journal: Applied Economics. Vol. 52, Issue 39

Abstract: Countries differ in their academic upper-secondary school systems whereby some require their students to choose a specialization track from a set of areas – typically natural sciences, economic sciences, or humanities – and follow that specialization for the course of their upper secondary education years whereas, by contrast, others follow a general curriculum in which students are not required to follow a single specialization and thus, may receive a more general education. Because countries follow only one system or the other, a cross-country analysis is required to estimate the possible effects on students’ achievement of these institutional differences. We measure achievement with the scores in reading and mathematics in international assessment programmes. An international difference-in-differences approach is chosen to account for country heterogeneity and unobserved factors influencing student outcomes, by using data from three different large-scale international student assessments. Results suggest that there is a negative effect from specialization tracking and that this may be greater for specific sub-groups of the student population – in particular, for students with a low socioeconomic status.

Read here: Leme, A. C., Escardíbul, J., Nunes. L. C., Reis, A. B., Seabra, M. C. (2020). The Effect of a Specialized versus a General Upper-Secondary School Curriculum on Students’ Performance and Inequality. A Difference-in-Differences Cross-Country Analysis.” Applied Economics 52 (39).

PUBLIC FUNDING OF HIGHER EDUCATION: WHO GAINS, WHO LOSES? 

Authors: Ana Balcão Reis 

Journal: International Journal of Economic Theory. Vol 16, Issue 2.

Abstract: This paper analyses the effects of public funding of higher education on individuals’ welfare, taking into account the hierarchical nature of the education system and the fact that parents may complement basic public education with private tutoring. Although public funding financed by a proportional income tax increases access to higher education, some of the agents who gain access lose in welfare terms. Moreover, it is shown that the marginal agent regarding access to higher education would always prefer a pure private funding system in which he would not send his offspring to higher education but would also not pay tuition fees or pay taxes.

Read here: Reis, A. B. (2020). Public Funding of Higher Education: Who Gains, Who Loses? International Journal of Economic Theory 16 (2).

PREDICTORS OF STUDENT SUCCESS IN HIGHER EDUCATION: SECONDARY SCHOOL INTERNAL SCORES VERSUS NATIONAL EXAMS 

Authors: José Miguel Cerdeira, Luís Catela Nunes, Ana Balcão Reis, Maria do Carmo Seabra

Journal: Higher Education Quarterly, Vol. 73, Issue 4

Abstract: In many countries entrance to Higher Education is determined by the performance of students in secondary school and/or the scores obtained in national exams. The relative weight of these two scores on the admission decision is a relevant policy topic, given its implication on who is admitted to university. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relative predictive power of these two measures on the academic performance of students in Higher Education. It makes use of a dataset of Bachelor students from Portuguese Higher Education institutions with detailed information about their characteristics and past achievement results. The measure of academic achievement considered is the bachelor’s final average score. The main finding is that the scores given by teachers in secondary school are better predictors of subsequent performance than the access exam scores. The relevance of factors like working status, social support and gender vary with the reputation of the degree and the type of Higher Education institution, university versus polytechnic. A noteworthy result is that the added predictive contribution of parents' education is always negligible when past success measures are already taken into account.

Read here: Cerdeira, J. M., Nunes, L. C., Reis, A. B., Seabra M. C. (2018). Predictors of Student Success in Higher Education: Secondary School Internal Scores versus National Exams. Higher Education Quarterly 72 (4).

IS  RETENTION BENEFICIAL TO LOW-ACHIEVING STUDENTS? EVIDENCE FROM PORTUGAL 

Authors: Luís Catela Nunes, Ana Balcão Reis, Maria do Carmo Seabra

Journal: Applied Economics. Vol. 50, Issue 40

Abstract: The role of retention as an educational tool to overcome under-achievement is a hotly debated issue, especially given that the results in the literature are not consensual. The Portuguese case is particularly well suited to study this issue: all students must take standardized national exams at specific grades. Moreover, the available dataset tracks the performance of students over time. Therefore, we are able to measure the impact of students’ retention on their subsequent academic performance since we can control for each student’s initial level of ability at the moment of retention. We use a propensity score matching approach, in which retained and promoted 4th grade students are matched according to their socioeconomic characteristics and the scores obtained in national exams. To address potentially remaining endogeneity biases, we also use the culture of retention at school level as an instrumental variable. The results suggest that in some situations retentions may have on average a positive impact on future achievement. However, in the cases where statistically significant impacts are found, the estimated magnitudes are relatively small. Our results are relevant for countries with high retention rates that are considering alternative educational policies to promote students’ achievement.

Read here: Nunes, L. C., Reis A. B. Seabra M. C. (2018). Is Retention Beneficial to Low-Achieving Students? Evidence from Portugal. Applied Economics 50 (40).

CORRECTING FOR SAMPLE PROBLEMAS IN PISA AND THE IMPROVEMENT IN PORTUGUESE STUDENTS' PERFORMANCE

Authors: Pedro Freitas, Luís Catela Nunes, Ana Balcão Reis, Maria do Carmo Seabra, Adriana Ferro

Journal: Assessment in Education: Principles, Policy & Practice. Vol. 23, 2016. Issue 4

Abstract: The results of large-scale international assessments such as Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) have attracted a considerable attention worldwide and are often used by policymakers to support educational policies. To ensure that the published results represent the actual population, these surveys go through a thorough scrutiny to ensure their validity. One important issue that may affect the results is the occurrence of different participation rates across groups with heterogeneous average student scores. In this study, we illustrate how problems of representativeness of the samples may be corrected by the use of post-stratified weights. We use the case of Portugal, a country where we uncover a meaningful difference between the actual population and the PISA samples in terms of the distribution of students per grade and track of studies. We show that after post-stratification, the temporal evolution of the PISA scores is quite different from the one reported.

Read here: Freitas, P., Nunes, L. C., Reis, A. B., Seabra, M. C., and Ferro, A. (2016) Correcting for Sample Problems in PISA and the Improvement in Portuguese Students’ Performance. Assessment in Education: Principles, Policy & Practice 23 (4).

MEASURING LABOUR MISMATCH IN EUROPE 

Authors: António Morgado, Tiago Neves Segueira, Marcelo Santos, Alexandra Ferreira-Lopes, Ana Balcão Reis

Journal: Social Indicators Research. Vol. 129, Issue 1

Abstract: We calculate aggregate and comparable measures of mismatch in the labour market for 30 European countries. These indicators measure vertical mismatch (related to the level of education, e.g. overeducation, and undereducation) and horizontal mismatch (related to the field of education) and are comparable across countries and through time. In European countries, between 15 % to nearly 35 % of workers have a job for which they have more (or less) qualifications than the usual level. Approximately 20 % to nearly 50 % work in a job for which they do not have the usual field qualification. There is a great variability on mismatch across European labour markets. Undereducation affects more workers than overeducation in most European countries. Low correlations between mismatch and unemployment indicate that mismatch should be regarded as an additional informative variable, thus useful to characterize labour markets.

Read here: Morgado, A., Sequeira, T. N., Santos, M., Ferreira-Lopes, A., Reis, A. B. (2016). Measuring Labour Mismatch in Europe. Social Indicators Research 129 (1).

THE PUBLICATION OF SCHOOL RANKINGS: A STEP TOWARDS INCREASED ACCOUNTABILITY?

Authors: Luís Catela Nunes, Ana Balcão Reis, Maria do Carmo Seabra

Journal: Economics of Education Review. Vol. 49, (December)

Abstract: This paper contributes to the discussion of the effects of the publication of school rankings based on students’ scores on national exams. We study the effectiveness of this (low stakes) accountability mechanism. Our results suggest that the publication of rankings has clear effects upon families and schools in Portugal. After the rankings publication, fewer students enrol in schools that are rated poorly and the probability of closure of these schools increases. These effects are stronger for private schools.

Read here: Nunes, L. C., Reis A. B., Seabra, M. C. (2015) . The publication of school rankings: A step toward increased accountability? Economics of Education Review 49 (December).

MONEY FOR NOTHING AND STIGMA FOR FREE? THE EFFECT OF POSITIVE DISCRIMINATORY POLICIES ON EDUCATION GAPS

Authors: José Mesquita Gabriel, Luís Catela Nunes

Abstract: This paper analyzes a compensatory education program in Portugal whose aim is to provide equal educational opportunities for children from lower socioeconomic status (SES) families by ensuring additional school resources for deprived areas. Using two administrative databases covering virtually all public schools in Portugal, we present a comprehensive evaluation of such a program addressing an important effect that has been overlooked so far in the literature: a negative stigma effect, wherin students from higher SES families become less likely to enroll in treated schools. Our staggered difference-in-differences estimates show that: 1) the Student-to-Teacher ratio decreased significantly in treated schools as a result of their entry into the program, corresponding to an average drop of 9% relative to the pre-treatment average value; 2) the proportion of students whose mothers concluded upper secondary school entering treated schools declined substantially, a decrease of around 14% of the average pre-treatment value; and 3) no effects were observed in blind-marked national exam scored in the 4th-, 6th-, and 9th-grade for students coming from lower SES families, while some positive effects were found for non-blind sources of evaluation, particularly in schools where the change in additional resources was more pronounced. Our results emphasize the need to account for unanticipated risks of futher aggravating segregation across schools when implementing publicly announced programs, in particular when they lead to discontinuities in terms of school eligibility.

Read it here: Nova SBE Working Paper Series No. 668

THE HETEROGENEOUS EFFECTS OF TEACHER TURNOVER ON STUDENT ACHIEVEMENT: EVIDENCE FROM A CENTRALIZED TEACHER ALLOCATION SYSTEM

Authors: Sofia Gomes, Luís Catela Nunes, Pedro Freitas

Abstract: This paper contributes to the literature on the effect of teacher turnover on student achievement. We study an educational system characterized by a centralized teacher allocation model and estimate the causal effects of teacher turnover on students' exam scores. A small but statistically significant negative effect is found, which is mainly attributed to organizational desruption at the school level and seems to persist for up to two years. We find heterogeneous effects, with students from lower socioeconomic backgrounds and with lower previous achievement being more negatively affected. We conclude that students in lower-achieving and socally disadvantaged schools are more exposed to teacher turnover, and this turnover penalizes these students more. We also find that it is the turnover among short-term contract teachers that drives the negative effects.

Read it here: Nova SBE Working Paper Series No. 663

EFFECTS OF INDIVIDUAL INCENTIVE REFORMS IN THE PUBLIC SECTOR: THE CASE OF TEACHERS

Authors: Pedro S. Martins, João R. Ferreira

Abstract: We evaluate a political reform in Portugal that introduced individual teacher performance-related pay and tournaments in public schools. We find that the focus on individual performance decreased student achievement, as measured in national exams, and increased grade inflation. The rsults follow from a difference-in-differences analysis of matched student-school, panels and two complementary control groups: public schools in regions that were exposed to ligher reforms; and private schools, whose teachers had their incentives unchanged. Students in public schools with a higher proportion of teachers exposed to the tournaent also perform worse. Overall, our results highlight the potential social costs from disruption of cooperation amongst public sector workers due to competition for promotions.

Read it here: GLO Discussion Paper, No. 1441

HIGH-STAKES EXAMS CHANGE TEACHER GRADING STANDARDS: EVIDENCE FROM A POLICY REFORM

Author: Pedro Freitas

Abstract: The existence of external assessment mechanisms remains a controversial issue in education policy. In this work we study how student assessment performed by class teachers is affected by the strengthening of external accountability mechanisms, through the introduction of high-stakes exams. By means of a difference-indifferences
approach, we exploit a policy reform to measure how the introduction of high-stakes exams in Portuguese and Mathematics at the end of the 6th grade
changed teacher grading standards. It is shown that the introduction of high-stakes exams leads to a change in teacher scores distribution, namely a significantly higher share of failing scores and a lower percentage of higher scores. Consequently, in the
short-run, we estimate that the introduction of high-stakes exams increased grade repetition by 3 pp. This effect is stronger for Mathematics and for schools with a lower concentration of college graduated mothers. We additionally conclude on potential positive effects on long-run academic results for students who took the high-stakes exams.

ALL MEASURES LEAD TO ROME: ABILITY PEER EFFECTS USING TEACHER VS EXAM SCORES

Authors: David Marques da Costa, Pedro Freitas, Luís Catela Nunes, Ana Balcão Reis

Abstract: We study whether different measures of students’ achievement produce different estimates of ability peer effects. We compare peer effects of classmates when ability is measured through standardized exam scores in Mathematics and Portuguese and teacher scores for a broader set of subjects and grades. Our dataset refers to the population of 9th grade students in public schools in Portugal. To address identification threats stemming from unobserved sorting of students to peer groups, we resort to school-by-year and teacher-by-school fixed effects. The results point to positive and very similar ability peer effects regardless of the subject and assessment measure.

NOT HAPPY WITH MY SCORE! DETERMINANTS OF EXAM APPEALS IN HIGH SCHOOL

Authors: Pedro Freitas, Luís Catela Nunes, Ana Balcão Reis

Abstract: Using a large administrative database of upper secondary students, we examine how exam appeals and their outcomes are related to students’ characteristics. We conclude that the higher the family’s socioeconomic status, the greater the likelihood of the student filing an exam appeal. However, the likelihood that the revision will
result in an improvement in the exam score is not determined by the students’ original exam scores. Our findings show that, while exam grading is blinded, the presence of barriers to exam appeals may create biases favouring students from higher socioeconomic backgrounds.

WHAT DRIVES THE EVOLUTION IN PISA SCORES? A QUANTILE DECOMPOSITION APPROACH

Authors: Pedro Freitas, Luís Catela Nunes, Ana Balcão Reis

Abstract: In recent years PISA has become one of the most inuential instruments to compare dierent educational systems across time. The structure of the PISA data allows the identication of the evolution of 15-year-old students' academic performance in the long-run. This evolution can be driven by changes in the country's socio-demographic structure or due to the higher ability of educational systems to reach higher results given the students' characteristics. By using data from Portugal, a country with one the sharpest positive evolutions in PISA scores between 2003 and 2018, we test these hypotheses by means of a quantile decomposition approach. We estimate that, despite the signicant changes in the socio-economic background of Portuguese students in recent years, this was not the main driver in the evolution of Portuguese results. Additionally, we conclude that the change in results is higher for high-achieving students and that the evolution is stronger for students in public schools and in non-vocational tracks.

UNDERSTANDING THE PRIVATE-PUBLIC SCHOOL PERFORMANCE GAP IN PISA: EVIDENCE FROM PORTUGAL

Authors: Ricardo Colaço, Pedro Freitas, Luís Catela Nunes, Ana Balcão Reis

Abstract: Education policies often become the subject of scrutiny when the results of international large-scale assessments are published. However, the quality of thoseassessments depends critically on the representativeness of the relevant samples. Namely, for sound comparisons between public and private schools, it is required that the respective samples are representative. We analyse the recently reported
convergence in performance of private and public schools in Portugal. We find that part of the diminishing gap in scores between the two types of schools is actually explained by sampling issues. In addition, when changes in the population structure
are taken into account and score eects are isolated, we find that the convergence in scores is much less impressive than reported. For instance, in Science, after correcting for sampling issues and removing population composition eects, the reported convergence of 45.6 points between private and public schools from 2015 to 2018, amounts to only 8.7 points. The decomposition and sampling correction methods used in this paper can be easily adapted to other contexts.

CAN VOCATIONAL EDUCATION IMPROVE SCHOOLING AND LABOUR OUTCOMES? EVIDENCE FROM A LARGE EXPANSION

Authors: João R. Ferreira, Pedro S. Martins

Abstract: We evaluate the education and labour impact of vocational education and training (VET). Identification draws on a reform to reduce early school leaving, which involved a large-scale, staggered introduction of VET courses. Drawing on comprehensive student-school matched panel data, we find that VET increased upper secondary graduation rates considerably: our LATE estimates are as large as 50 percentage points. These effects are even stronger for low-achieving students and welfare recipients; and also hold when exploiting the large gender differences of VET, with many courses selected almost only by either boys or girls. Moreover, we find evidence of regional youth employment growth and VET wage premiums following VET expansion.

Leia aqui: Nova SBE Working Paper Series wp658

GENDER GAPS IN DIFFERENT ASSESSMENT SYSTEMS: THE ROLE OF TEACHER GENDER 

Authors: Catarina Angelo, Ana Balcão Reis

Abstract: Previous research has identified a gender gap in the difference between teacher grading and scores on national exams at the end of secondary school. We go a step further and look at how teacher characteristics may influence this gender gap. We find that exams are relatively more favorable for boys, regardless of the teacher gender or the gender matching. Results suggest that having a male teacher tends to increase the assessment gap for all students through a greater decrease from teacher grades to exam scores, the impact being less for boys.

Read it here: Nova SBE Working Paper Series No. 640

NO COUNTRY FOR YOUNG KIDS? THE EFFECTS OF SCHOOL STARTING AGE THROUGHOUT CHILDHOOD AND BEYOND

Authors: Gonçalo Lima, Luís Catela Nunes, Ana Balcão Reis, Maria do Carmo Seabra

Abstract: Being the youngest in a cohort entails many penalties. Using administrative data of every public-school student in Portugal, we show that although performance gains from being 1-year older fade quickly from primary education to high school, age-related penalties persist through a combination of grade retention, educational tracking and testing policies. Those that start school younger are more likely to repeat grades and ultimately drop out from school. Older entrants are more likely to enroll in scientific curricula in high school, are more successful at accessing public higher education and enroll in more selective undergraduate courses.

Read it here: Nova SBE Working Paper Series No. 639

STUDENT SEGREGATION ACROSS AND WITHIN SCHOOLS. THE CASE OF THE PORTUGUESE SCHOOL SYSTEM 

Authors: João Firmino, Luís Catela Nunes, Sílvia de Almeida, Susana Batista

Abstract: We provide the most comprehensive description of student segregation in the Portuguese public school system to date, a system that exhibits interesting institutional features potentially linked with the student segregation issue (e.g. school catchment areas, course tracking, and almost no central regulations regarding class composition). The analysis uses the entire regular student population enrolled in all public schools of continental Portugal (grades 1 to 12, from 2006/07 to 2016/17). Looking at three segregation dimensions – economic, academic, and immigrant – at both between and within-school levels and using a novel dissimilarity index recently proposed in the literature aimed at better capturing systematic segregation, we find that segregation, on median, is mild, across time, grades, and regions. The most important exception is the case of within-school academic segregation. During upper-secondary schooling, in particular, when students are divided across classes according to own course-tracking decisions, it doubles. Moreover, within-school academic segregation estimates have the largest interquartile ranges, within a given year, grade, or region, pointing to heterogeneity in the way different schools set up classes internally in terms of students’ academic characteristics. Academic and economic segregation are positively associated, at both between and within school levels. The Portuguese segregation insights are also compared to those from other geographies.

Read it here: Nova SBE Working Paper Series No. 633

TEACHER QUALITY, ALTERNATIVE HIRING POLICY AND STUDENT OUTCOMES: EVIDENCE FROM INDIA 

Authors: Ana Balcão Reis, Madhuri Agarwal

Abstract: The increasing number of contract teachers in developing countries has led to concerns about its effect on teacher quality. Contract teachers are in general less trained and qualified. However, they are more likely to be hired from the local community which can positively affect student outcomes by reducing social distance or through better monitoring. This paper provides additional evidence on the difference in the impact of contract and regular civil service teachers looking at the effect of being a local teacher. Using a value-added estimation method, based on data from a unique survey in India, we find that there is not a significant difference in the overall performance of the two types of teacher. However, focusing on contract teachers as an identification strategy, we observe local teachers have a significant and positive impact (0.21 to 0.23 standard deviation) on student learning for grade 6.

The most recent version was presented at the XXVII Meeting of the Economics of Education Association

GOOD STUDENTS OR UNEXPECTEDLY GOOD STUDENTS? THE IMPACT OF TEACHER EXPECTATIONS ON INTERNAL SCORE 

Authors: Pedro Freitas, Rodrigo Ferreira

The most recent version was presented at the XXVII Meeting of the Economics of Education Association 

CLASS COMPOSITION EFFECTS. EVIDENCE FROM PORTUGAL USING PANEL DATA 

Author: João Firmino

The most recent version was presented at the XXVII Meeting of the Economics of Education Association

CLASS COMPOSITION AND STUDENT ACHIEVEMENT IN PORTUGAL

Authors: João Firmino, Luís Catela Nunes, Ana Balcão Reis, Maria do Carmo Seabra

Abstract: In this paper we estimate class composition effects impacting on achievement levels of Portuguese students. Endogeneity between student achievement and student non-random sorting across schools and classes may prevent the correct identification of class composition effects. Using student level cross sectional data of 6th and 9th graders (2011/12 academic year) provided by MISI dataset we contrast a relatively recent estimation procedure in the literature – involving a proper instrument (IV) coupled with School Fixed Effects (SFE) – with usual OLS as means to properly identify the composition effects free of endogeneity bias. Several dimensions of class composition were identified as consistently impacting national exam scores on Portuguese and Mathematics. Namely, the proportion, in a given class, of pupils: 1) under the relevant grade reference age; 2) of low-income households (negative impact) and 3) with home access to internet (positive impact), to mention a few. Many of the effects are statistically significantly asymmetric (e.g. an increasing proportion of students aged at or below the relevant grade reference age in a class seems to affect positively this type of classmate while hurting those aged above it). Non-linear effects are also analysed. In turn, class size yields no significant effect on achievement, while class gender composition uniquely affects boys’ achievement in Portuguese. Given that in the past recent years Portugal has been put under tight public budgetary management it is even more important to identify class compositional effects. Their identification, which this paper contributes to, can provide policy orientations capable of delivering positive increments to student achievement while, at the same time, be budget neutral. Taking the results obtained it seems that optimally allocating students across classes seems more attractive than to increase teacher spending to cut class size.

Read it here: Nova SBE Working Paper Series No. 624 - The most recent version was presented at the Statistical Forum of Direção-Geral de Estatística da Educação e Ciência

​VALUE-ADDED MEASUREMENTS UNDER HIGH-TEACHER TURNOVER 

Authors: Pedro Freitas, Rodrigo Ferreira

The most recent version was presented at the International Workshop on Applied Economics of Education

ON THE SOURCES AND MECHANISMS OF HUMAN CAPITAL EXTERNALITIES 

Author: Pedro Freitas

The most recent version was presented at the XXVI Meeting of the Economics of Education Association

(HOW) DO NON-COGNITIVE SKILLS PROGRAMS IMPROVE ADOLESCENT SCHOOL ACHIEVEMENT?EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE 

Author: Pedro Martins

Abstract: Non-cognitive skills programs may be an important policy option to improve the academic outcomes of adolescents. In this paper, we evaluate experimentally the EPIS program, which is based on bi-weekly individual or small-group non-cognitive mediation short meetings with low-performing students. Our RCT estimates, covering nearly 3,000 7th- and 8th-grade students across over 50 schools and a period of two years, indicate that the program increases the probability of progression by 11% to 22%. The e ects are stronger amongst older students, girls, and in language subjects (compared to maths).

Read it here: Nova SBE Working Paper Series No. 614

THE ADAPTATION OF STUDENTS FROM PORTUGUESE-SPEAKING AFRICAN COUNTRIES IN THEIR FIRST YEAR OF HIGHER EDUCATION IN PORTUGAL

Authors: Ana B. Reis, Cátia Batista, David M. Costa, Gonçalo Lima, Pedro Freitas

Synopsis: The number of students from Portuguese-speaking African countries in higher education in Portugal has been increasing in recent years. However, there is little information about the adaptation of these students to Portugal and higher education, and the conclusions drawn from the available studies are not positive. This policy brief, which aims to identify the possible causes hindering the adaptation of these students and to propose policy measures to address these challenges, is based on the analysis of a survey conducted within the scope of a project developed by our Knowedge Center in partnership with NOVAFRICA called "Mentoring for Success". This projects goal was to promote the integration and academic success of PALOP students in Portuguese higher education institutions through a structured and supervised mentoring program. It was funded by FAMI (the Asylum, Migration and Integration Fund) of the Ministry of Internal Administration.

Read it here (only in Portuguese): Reis, Ana B; Batista, Cátia, Costa, David M., Lima, Gonçalo; Freitas, Pedro (2024). The Adaptation of Students from Portuguese-speaking Countries in their First Year of Higher Educatoin in Portugal. Nova SBE Economics of Education Knowledge Center .

TRENDS IN STUDENT ACHIEVEMENT IN PORTUGAL - WHAT DOES PISA TELL US?

Authors: Luís Catela Nunes (coordenação), Pedro Freitas, Ricardo Colaço

Publisher: EDULOG - Fundação Belmiro de Azevedo

Synopsis: This study aimed to reflect the evolution of the performance of 15-year-old students in Portugal over the last 20 years, based on the analysis of PISA results. It highlights the influence of parental education and socioeconomic context on students' performance in the PISA tests and makes projections for 2025.

Read it here: Nunes, Luís Catela.; Freitas, Pedro; Colaço, Ricardo (2024). Trends in Student Achievement in Portugal - What does PISA Tell Us?. EDULOG - Fundação Belmiro de Azevedo.

ECONOMICS OF EDUCATION: AN OVERVIEW OF THE PORTUGUESE EDUCATIONAL SYSTEM – Book

Author: Pedro Freitas

Publisher: Fundação Francisco Manuel dos Santos (Coleccção Ensaios FFMS)

Synopsis: The last decades in Portugal witnessed the massification of the access to education. However, the available data point to the still huge impact of families’ socioeconomic conditions on student results, which cause huge inequalities within the educational system that later translate into wage inequalities in the labor market. In a time when we have more and more access to data on different school systems, we should look at the existing evidence to understand what educational policies have positive impacts on students’ educational outcomes.

Read it here: Freitas, P. (2023). Economia da Educação: Um Olhar Sobre o Sistema de Ensino Português. Fundação Francisco Manuel dos Santos. Colecção Ensaios FFMS.

FROM SOCIAL INEQUALITY TO SCHOOL INEQUALITY IN PORTUGUESE MUNICIPALITIES – Report

Authors: Luís Catela Nunes (coordination), Pedro Carneiro, Pedro Freitas, Miguel Estevinho Nunes, Alice Chaves, Sara Cal

Published by: EDULOG - Fundação Belmiro de Azevedo

Summary: In Portugal, just like in many other countries, inequalities in students’ school results are strongly tied to socioeconomic differences in students’ families. The first purpose of this study was to calculate the indicators that show how socioeconomic inequality translates into inequality in school results. For this we considered students’ results in national exams, whether they reach or conclude secondary education, and whether they opt for a professional or an academic-oriented secondary education path. These indicators were calculated at a municipality level, so that the municipalities where socioeconomic inequality translates into school inequality could be identified. The second purpose of this study was to identify and evaluate the importance of the factors that explain differences between municipalities. For instance, the importance of residential or school segregation and of conditions of labor and income were analyzed.

Read it here (only in Portuguese): Nunes, L. C., Carneiro, P., Freitas, P., Nunes, M. E., Chaves, A., Cal S. (2023). Da desigualdade escoalr à desigualdade escolar nos municípios de Portugal. EDULOG - Fundação Belmiro de Azevedo.

Explore the data that were used for this study here:  EDUSTAT

AN EDUCATIONAL SYSTEM THAT CANNOT ATTRACT NEW TEACHERS COMPROMISES THE FUTURE OF ITS STUDENTS – Chapter 7 of STATE OF THE NATION: EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS IN PORTUGAL – Report  

Chapter authors: Ana Balcão Reis Nunes, Luís Catela Nunes, Pedro Freitas, Sofia da Cruz Gomes, Cecília Henriques (Nova SBE). Margarida Rodrigues (Fundação José Neves). 

Published by: Fundação José Neves

Chapter summary: Performance differences between students can mostly be explained by differences between schools, and teachers play a pivotal role in students’ achievement. Portuguese teachers are the oldest in the European Union and few young people are interested in pursuing this profession, which is tainted by high levels of stress, high turnover rates and a difficult salary and career progression. It is urgent to improve teachers’ recruitment system and the appeal of the profession, in order to guarantee that students will be well prepared for the future.

Read it here: Estado da Nação: Educação, Emprego e Competências em Portugal 2023 (FJN)

EDUCATION POLICIES - Chapter from THE OXFORD BOOK OF PORTUGUESE POLITICS - Book

Author: Ana Balcão Reis

Publisher: Oxford University Press

Chapter Synopsis: The last 45 years in Portugal witnessed a huge expansion of enrolment rates in secondary and higher education. Simultaneously, the participation in international assessments like PISA since 2000 shows an improvement in Portuguese results. Until 2015 there was a trend to extend external evaluation from secondary to lower levels of education, which contributed to stronger school accountability namely through the publication of school rankings. In 2015 some national exams were eliminated, and the future evolution is uncertain. Teachers’ training, evaluation and remuneration have probably been the main factor of dispute in the political arena regarding the educational system. The renewal of the teaching personal that will be needed in the next decade is one of the major challenges facing the educational system and will depend a lot on the redefinition of these policies.

Check it here: Reis, A. B. (2022). Education Policies. In J. M. Fernandes, P. C. Magalhães, A. C. Pinto (Ed.) The Oxford Handbook of Portuguese Politics. Oxford University Press.

TEACHER TURNOVER IN PORTUGUESE PUBLIC SCHOOLS - Policy Brief

Authors: Luís Catela Nunes, Ana Balcão Reis, Pedro Freitas, Diogo Conceição

Published by: Nova SBE Economics of Education Knowledge Center

Summary: In this Policy Brief we analyse the turnover of teachers between groups of public schools in mainland Portugal between the academic years 2008/09 and 2017/18. We also investigate whether these movements are associated with the characteristics of the groups and the composition of their teaching staff, for example, in terms of the type of contract and the level of education. In the current context of teacher shortages in Portugal, where stability is a determining factor in attracting teachers to the career, it is particularly important to know the degree of turnover of current teachers in different types of schools. This work intends to contribute to a more detailed knowledge of the turnover of teachers and, in this way, to support public policies that lead to greater stability of teachers in schools.

Read it here: Nunes, L. C., Reis, A. B., Freitas P., Conceição, D. (2022). Rotatividade dos docentes nas escolas públicas portuguesas. (Policy Brief). Centro de Economia da Educação da Nova School of Business and Economics.  (only in Portuguese)

EDUCATIONAL MEASURES IN THE CURRENT CONTEXT OF LACK OF TEACHERS - Policy Brief

Authors: Luís Catela Nunes, Ana Balcão Reis, Diogo Conceição

Published by: Nova SBE Economics of Education Knowledge Center 

Summary: In this Policy Brief, we frame the future recruitment needs for new teachers and some characteristics of the current teachers compared with other education systems. The Nova SBE Economics of Education also present some summary statistics on the recent evolution of Portuguese students' achievement, which should be present in the moment of defining educational policies to recruit new teachers. Finally, the Nova SBE Economics of Education lists several education policies that have been presented and considered to mitigate the lack of teachers. We also identify past studies in the scientific literature about similar policies implemented in other educational systems, pointing out the evidence of their impact on the recruitment of teachers and student achievement. 

Read it here (only in Portuguese): Nunes, L. C., Reis A. B., Freitas P., Conceição D. (2022). Medidas Educativas no Contexto Atual de Falta de Professores. (Policy Brief). Centro de Economia da Educação da Nova School of Business and Economics

TEACHER’S IMPACT ON STUDENT LEARNING: ESTIMATES FOR PORTUGAL- Report

Authors: Luís Catela Nunes, Ana Balcão Reis, Maria do Carmo Seabra, Pedro Freitas, Rodrigo Ferreira, Pedro Carneiro

Published by: EDULOG - Fundação Belmiro de Azevedo

Summary: This project aims to determine the impact that a teacher can have on the students’ learning process, depending on his/her quality of teaching. In order to quantify the quality of the teacher, this research will resort to the Value Added of each one, more precisely, the average learning of his/her students which is normally computed through the evolution of the students’ grades in two adjacent periods, before and after the student is exposed to this teacher’s way of teaching. In order to do this, the research requires access to administrative microdata from students and teachers, which was only available in the USA and some developing countries. Nevertheless, there were created new databases for data in Portugal that link the teachers to each student in each school year, along with the results from the 4th, 6th, 9th, and 12th grade, allowing for these types of studies to be performed in Portugal.

Read it here: Nunes, L. C., Reis, A. B., Seabra, C, Freitas P., Ferreira R., Carneiro P. (2021). O impacto do professor nas aprendizagens do aluno. EDULOG - Fundação Belmiro de Azevedo.

LEARNING LOSS DURING THE PANDEMIC: A RECOVERY PROPOSAL

Authors: Bruno P. Carvalho, Pedro Freitas, Susana Peralta, Ana Balcão Reis (Nova School of Business and Economics), Miguel Herdade (Ambition Institute)

Published by: Parliament of the Portuguese Republic

SCHOOL RANKINGS: IMPACT ON PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SCHOOLS. Chapter from SCHOOL AND STUDENTS' PERFORMANCE - Book 

Authors: Ana Balcão Reis, Luís Catela Nunes e Maria do Carmo Seabra. 

Publisher: Fundação Francisco Manuel dos Santos

Synopsis: As a result of the 1st Conference of the Education Month from Fundação Francisco Manuel dos Santos, the book "School and Students’ Performance" was developed, highlighting the main topics approached during the Conference. The chapter “School Rankings: Impact on public and private schools” was written by Ana Balcão Reis, Luís Catela Nunes and Carmo Seabra. It focuses on the impact of the first release of school’s rankings on the Portuguese schools, given its importance for public policy. The authors conducted research with the goal of understanding how did the schools’ performance change after the release of the rankings and if there was a significant difference between public and private schools. The results suggest different effects on public and private schools. On average, private schools present better positions in the rankings, and there is an increasing divergence between the two types of schools. While public schools remained still, a great part of private schools with bad performances closed.

Read it here (only in Portuguese): Reis, A. B., Nunes, L. C., Seabra, M. C. (2015) Rankings das escolas: O impacto nas escolas públicas e privadas. In Nunes, L. C. A Escola e o Desempenho dos Alunos. Fundação Francisco Manuel dos Santos, 1ª ed., 71–86.