Our NOVA SBE Environmental Economics Knowledge Center membersMiguel Fernandes,João Seixo, and Maria Antonieta Cunha-e-Sá, together withJoão N Franco (MARE – Polytechnic Institute of Leiria, Portugal), explore how ecosystem services in Southern European marine forests can be assessed and enhanced using Bayesian Belief Networks.

Read the article here.
Published in Ecosystem Services, Volume 76, 2025.

About the study:
Marine forests are crucial ecosystems that underpin biodiversity and human well-being. Despite their ecological importance, they are often underrepresented in conservation policies and increasingly threatened by human pressures.
This study uses Bayesian Belief Networks to simulate and predict changes in ecosystem service provision along the continental Portuguese coast, integrating field measurements and expert knowledge.

Key findings:
Restoration initiatives could increase ecosystem services by up to 40%.
Climate-driven herbivory and invasive species are significant threats, especially when combined with other anthropogenic pressures.
The availability and reliability of data influence whether predictions rely more on expert knowledge or field measurements.
This work represents a first step in applying Bayesian Network approaches to assess ecosystem services in European marine forests, providing a decision-support tool for targeted conservation strategies.

This work represents a first step in applying Bayesian Network approaches to assess ecosystem services in European marine forests, providing a decision-support tool for targeted conservation strategies.