Forecasts of Teacher Demand and Supply between 2021 and 2030
News | 17 May 2022 Forecasts of Teacher Demand and Supply between 2021 and 2030

Luís Catela Nunes will participate in the seminar “Faltam Professores! E agora? …”, organized by the Portuguese Education Council, to discuss the teacher recruitment needs for the next 10 years.

The Nova SBE Economics of Education Knowledge Center developed a study in partnership with the Directorate-General for Statistics of Education and Science (DGEEC – Direção-Geral de Estatísticas da Educação e Ciência) on the recruitment needs of new teachers until 2030/31.

In total, 227,120 projections are built for: 850 organic units, 33 recruitment groups and 10 academic years in mainland Portugal. The projection of the demand for teaching resources results from the number of students over time by school, school grades and tracks. The forecast for the supply of teaching resources results from the expected evolution of current teachers over time in terms of: retirements and reductions in working hours. Several other factors are also taken into account, such as: Number of students per class, Curricular plans, Non-teaching needs in the schools.

The demographic evolution will cause a 15% drop in the number of students between 2018/2019 and 2030/2031, which is observed across all school grades. Of the 120,369 teachers in 2018/2019, around 39% are expected to retire by 2030/2031. Between 2021/2022 and 2030/2031, 34,508 new teachers must be hired. It corresponds to 29% of teachers in 2018/2019, an average of 3,451 new teachers per year. The required annual recruitment of teachers grows over the period considered.

The cumulative recruitment needs between 2021/2022 and 2030/2031 are:

  • Pre-School: 4,419 educators.
  • 1st – 4th grades: 6,926 teachers.
  • 5th – 6th grades: 5,655 teachers.
  • 7th – 12th grades: 15,663 teachers.

Alternative scenarios were considered: universalization of preschool; non-inclusion of contract teachers; vocational education students reach 50% of the total number of students in upper-secondary education.

Future recruitment needs are challenging considering the low number of graduates in the field of teacher training.

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